The short and sweet is:
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
Taleb makes a lot of good points in his work and he’s worth reading but his website title, Fooled by Randomness, does not speak for an ever growing number of folks. When it comes to manufactured ‘events’ for political and monetary gain, nothing is random. As far as I can tell, Taleb considers 9/11 a ‘black swan’ but still portrays it as an Arab ‘terrorist’ attack. Without including elements of rouge governments and ‘hidden hands’ as being the perpetrators of ‘black swan’ events, he falls short in telling the whole story.
9/11 certainly took most of us by surprise, it did have a massive impact and in hindsight we have put together a plausible and factual narrative to explain it but there was nothing random about it. Some of us realized on that day what it was even without having the answers and by July 7, 2005 with the London bombings, a great number knew without a doubt that the ‘black swans’ were out for another round.
The explosion of the internet in the last ten years has negated the concept that certain kinds of ‘black swan’ events are unpredictable. Speculations and predictions seem to have covered any event that could possibly happen when there is a political aspect. No need to repeat them, you know what I’m talking about.
The mini ‘black swans’ are bothersome. They’re continuous and so often transparent. but whose effect is supposed to be cumulative. The Breivik and Liege affairs are examples of late. These are slow change agents designed to work in the background long after the story has faded from the collective conscious.
Any major ‘black swan’ will be seen for what it is, a black flag, a false flag, a deception that only hopes to work on those who don’t as yet care enough or are just too stuck in their mindset to see past the lies. No matter. Some will be screaming out at what it really is, both online and out in the streets, telling everyone who will listen or not. This screaming along with some gentle persuasion as needed will have an effect. Everyone will not be fooled all of the time.
A big show ‘black swan’ perhaps can only be accomplished by shutting down portions of that pesky internet and controlling the message. That might work somewhat but would also confirm to even some fence sitters of a cover up in the works. Plans are being made to make sure that there are laws in place to censor whatever those who stage the events want.
Lawless Internet is crushing U.S. creators says a congressperson. She should know. Her ‘creators’ are worried that their control is not yet complete. As long as we have a breath in us….. it never will be.